The Jasmine Revolution - Atasi Das

The Tunisian Republic in North Africa has been witnessing violent demonstrations and riots by its residents, since December 2010 till January 2011, against the authoritarian rule of its President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. The revolt has been named the “Jasmine Revolution” by the western media, after Tunisia’s national flower. Iin Tunisia itself, the revolution has been termed as the "Sidi Bouzid revolt" after the city, which saw the first protests. The mass protests were sparked off by soaring unemployment, food-inflation, substandard living condition, rampant corruption and impediments to freedom of speech.

In response to the protests, Ben Ali dissolved the Tunisian government on 14 January 2011, but Prime Minister Mohammed Ghannouchi took the reigns of the country the same day, in apparent violation of the country’s constitutional provisions. Ben Ali finally fled the country ending his 23 year old long reign, from 1987 to 2011. After Ben Ali's departure, Tunisia got a caretaker coalition government comprising members of both the ruling “Constitutional Democratic Rally” (RCD) and the opposition party. At the behest of public outcry, on 27 January 2011, Prime Minister Mohamed Ghannouchi had to drop the former RCD members from his government. Ben Ali’s autocratic government initially had the political backing of the western superpowers-the US and France. The Tunisian uprising has stoked similar sentiments in Yemen, Jordan, Morocco, Egypt and Algeria.

About Tunisia
Tunisia’s economy is primarily export oriented. Agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum production and tourism are the prime sectors of the Tunisian economy. Tunisia’s GDP was worth $ 41 billion in 2008 – the country recorded an average GDP growth rate of 5 percent in the last decade. Tunisia’s daily oil production is around 97,600 barrels from 12 oil fields.

The European Union is Tunisia’s prime trading partner accounting for over 70 percent of the country’s exports and imports. Tunisia also boasts of substantial investments from the Arab world, in particular from the United Arab Emirates. The country possesses an association agreement with the European Union and is a member of the African Union and the Arab League.

The Egyptian repercussions
As protests for the ouster of the octogenarian Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak gathered momentum in Egypt; he dismissed the Cabinet on 28 January 2011 and promised political and economic reforms.

The US president Barack Obama urged the Egyptian government to abstain from using violence on peaceful demonstrations - a proposal obliged by the Egyptian army- and called for restoration of stalled Internet and communication services. The army has acknowledged the “legitimate rights of the people” (read to protest against soaring unemployment, inflation and political repression).

The protests have led to loss of human life and property and injured many; shortage of food items, severance of communication and closure of airports are all part of the situation there.
The Obama administration is in favour of an immediate termination of the Hosni Mubarak regime and has batted for an interim government headed by the Vice-President Omar Suleiman, with the backing of the Egyptian military. Mubarak himself wants to stay in power till the September elections.
Demonstrations near the Suez Canal have threatened the major economic lifeline of Egypt: one-third of the global oil supply and 6 percent of the world’s cargo passes through the Suez Canal. The Egyptian government earns a substantial portion of its revenues from the shipments through the Suez. Both the Suez Canal and the SUMED (Suez-Mediterranean) Pipeline- owned by Arab Petroleum Pipeline Co., an Egyptian government joint venture-are important cargo transit links in Egypt.

Oil prices are firming up, as the world anticipates future instability from the socio-political unrest engulfing Egypt. Some analysts however, feel that the Egyptians in their own business interest will keep their trade routes trouble free; also there will be the pressure from OPEC towards this.
On the international diplomatic front, if the Mubarak regime ends, Egypt may need to revise its political terms with Israel and Palestine. The Egyptian government may have to abandon its policy of appeasing its American financiers and will have to honour its citizens’ support for the Palestinian cause and their opposition to Israel. Gas supplies from Egypt to Jordan and Israel were stalled after extremist forces blew up a pipeline running through North Sinai in Egypt in February.

Conclusion
The novelty of the Jasmine revolution lies in the fact that, instead of a military coup, a civilian movement has driven out an autocratic ruler. The North African nations fed up with poor economic conditions, large scale corruption and pathetic human rights conditions perpetrated by their current autocratic regimes, now seem keen to initiate people’s empowerment. But both Tunisia and Egypt lack strong opposition parties, who might take over as the natural leader after the ouster of the old machinery; the present protests are being led mostly by the youth of the country.

To conclude, the nature of problems, which precipitated the crisis calls for adept handling by a skilled and seasoned government – rhetoric will no longer do, people expect serious committed socio-political and economic reforms from the government.