Assembly Elections, 2011 - Atasi Das

Assembly elections were held in five states of Assam, Kerala, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, this year, in the months of April and May; the results were declared simultaneously on 13th May, 2011. The  poll verdict was more important for the ruling Indian National  Congress(INC) than for the Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP)  in the context  of national politics, as the former has got much better representation than the latter, in all these states.

 In Assam, the polls were held in two phases on 4th April and 11th April. This state has 126 assembly constituencies. For the last five years, the Congress was in power, with the support of  Bodoland People’s Front (BPF).The principal opposition parties are Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), BJP and the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF). The AGP is the largest opposition party. The main advantage for Congress was that there was no pre-poll alliance between the AGP and the BJP. So the main electoral battle was fought between the Congress and the AGP. The Congress, ably led by veteran leader and serving chief minister, Sri Tarun Gogoi, entered its third term in power in Assam by an overwhelming majority. The party secured 78 seats all by itself. This victory can be attributed to the pace of development in the state since 2001, when the Congress took over the reins of power from AGP, peace deals struck with militant outfits like the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) and the National Democratic Front of Boroland (NDFB), and a divided opposition.

In Kerala, the assembly elections were held on 13th April, 2011 in all 140 constituencies in the state. Here the contest was between the two major coalitions of the state, namely United Democratic Front (UDF) and the Left Democratic Front (LDF). The UDF coalition is led by the INC and the LDF by the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI-M). The LDF was in power for the last five years. The important electoral issues included universal access to basic amenities like food, drinking water, elementary education and electrification, and the creation of more jobs in the state. Kerala has had a tradition of changing its government every five years, and this time also it was no exception. The ruling LDF combine was voted out of power with the UDF combine securing 72 seats and edging out the LDF by a slender margin of 4 seats. Though the Congress managed to win the elections, it will be tough going for them with an individual tally of only 38 seats. This will result in reduced bargaining power and greater dependence on its allies.

Puducherry went to polls on 13th April, 2011 for deciding the representatives of its 30 constituencies.  Puducherry was by the Democratic  Alliance, which includes the Congress, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), the Paattali Makkal Katchi(PMK)  and the Communist Party of India (CPI). The  is led by All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK).

The Congress was outwitted by the All India N R Congress (AINRC), which got 15 seats and with the support of an independent, secured a clear majority. The Congress had removed the erstwhile chief minister N. Rangaswamy, although a majority of the party members supported him. N. Rangaswamy formed the AINRC just before the polls and has tasted immediate success. Overlooking local sentiments has cost the party dear in this Assembly election.

The assembly elections in Tamil Nadu were held on 13th April, 2011 in 234 constituencies in the state. Here the battle was between arch rivals DMK and the AIADMK. The election was fought on the critical issues of price rise, corruption, 2G Spectrum scam, misuse of power by the family of Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi, and the killings of fishermen around the Rameshwaram coast. The succession issue of the DMK and the arrest of former Union Minister of Telecommunication, A Raja, in the 2G spectrum scam were also important issues. Tamil Nadu unanimously voted for a change; the AIADMK front won 203 seats and the AIADMK secured a clear majority all by itself, securing 150 seats. The state stuck to its tradition of voting the incumbent government out of power. The AIADMK government led by J. Jayalalitha, is expected to improve upon in the departments of education, healthcare, rural and urban infrastructure, technology, power supply, drinking water facility and law and order, since these have been the core areas of failure of the previous regime.

The assembly elections in West Bengal were probably the cynosure of all eyes and not without reason. In an unparalleled safety measure, the Election Commission scheduled the elections in the state in six phases on 18th April, 23rd April, 27th April, 3rd May and 10th May. The state has 294 constituencies. Here the electoral contest was between the Left Front led by the CPI-M and the All India Trinamul Congress (AITMC) / INC combine. The Left Front has been ruling the state for a record 34 years. In the last five years, the ruling combine was confronted by a series of issues, which reduced their public support, as indicated by the losses suffered in the LokSabha polls in 2009, and the Municipal polls in 2010. These include the Singur and Nandigram land acquisition controversies, Maoist insurgency problems, the Rizwanur Rehman case, the Tapasi Malik rape case and the more recent Netai killings. West Bengal has voted for a historic change and the AITMC/ INC combine has won a total of 226 seats with the AITMC securing 184 seats. The anti-incumbency issue was evidently an important factor in the West Bengal polls. The common people have huge expectations from the new government, led by the firebrand leader, Miss Mamata Banerjee; the priority areas for Miss Banerjee will be industry and finance, healthcare, education, employment generation and facilities to minority communities.

In summary, the recently concluded round of Assembly elections in the five states, has proved to be a narrow escape for the Congress. It has registered wins in three states-on its own in Assam and Kerala and via its ally, the AITMC in West Bengal. But only the win in Assam has been a comprehensive one, the other one was by a slender margin. In West Bengal, the Congress will be obliged to follow its ally, since the AITMC has secured a clear majority. These results hold significance in (the) context of the Lok Sabha elections due in 2014. The Congress cannot afford to take the going easy, as indicated by the Assembly election results. The Central Government must take concrete steps to curb corruption and tackle price rise, since these are the two most important issues fuelling public discontent against the ruling coalition.